Why Phoenix Buyers Might Be Running Out of Time

For nearly a year, Phoenix-area homebuyers have enjoyed a rare stretch of leverage: more inventory, motivated sellers, and room to negotiate. But according to Tina Tamboer of The Cromford Report, those days may be numbered.

At the Phoenix Realtors 2026 Forecast, Tamboer told agents that the market’s pendulum is beginning to swing back toward sellers. “Buyers are still drunk with power,” she said, “but they should enjoy it now; nothing lasts forever.”

The Window Is Narrowing

Tamboer’s analysis points to five key reasons the current buyer-friendly window could close soon:

1. Rates Are Down, and That’s Bringing Buyers Back.
   Mortgage rates have dropped nearly a full point since January, sitting just below 6.25%. According to Tamboer, every 1% rate drop lowers principal and interest payments by about 10%. But history shows that buyers tend to reenter the market once rates stabilize, not while they’re still falling, meaning competition is about to heat up again.

2. Prices Are Off Their Peak.
   The price per square foot for typical Maricopa County homes (around 1,500 sq. ft.) is down roughly 3% from last October and still about 13% below its 2022 peak. That makes today’s prices some of the best buyers have seen in two years.
   “We’re not going back to 2019 prices,” Tamboer emphasized. “The affordability buyers are seeing right now is the result of temporary alignment — lower rates, motivated sellers, and higher concessions all happening at once.”

3. Fourth-Quarter Motivation.
   Many sellers want to close before the new year, when fresh listings hit the market. That seasonal pressure often translates to more negotiation room for serious buyers in Q4.

4. Builder Incentives Are Still on the Table. For now.
   Builders are offering everything from free upgrades to rate buy-downs, but as soon as buyer traffic increases, those perks are likely to vanish.

5. Concessions Are Common.
   Over half of all homes sold in Maricopa County this October included a seller concessions, the highest rate in at least 25 years. Excluding the luxury market, that figure climbs to nearly 70% for homes priced between $200K and $600K.

What It Means for Buyers

The Cromford Report’s data suggests that supply and demand are both rising, but with sellers regaining confidence, the balance is tightening. In other words, the market is shifting from “buyer’s opportunity” to “buyer’s last call.”

For anyone waiting for the “perfect time,” this might be it. Rates, prices, and concessions rarely align in buyers’ favor — and as Tamboer reminded everyone at the forecast event, “Nothing lasts forever.”

Let’s Talk About Your Next Move

Whether you’re buying your first home, upsizing, or planning to sell, timing matters. The same factors giving buyers leverage today — lower rates, motivated sellers, and market momentum — also help sellers who price strategically and prepare well. If you’d like to understand where your goals fit into this shifting landscape, let’s have a conversation. I can walk you through the numbers, neighborhood trends, and what to expect next, so you can move forward with confidence.