A Different Kind of Snowbird Season
More homes, fewer Canadians, shifting trends.
The Phoenix metropolitan area is preparing for another snowbird season, but the landscape looks dramatically different than in years past. A combination of declining Canadian participation, shifting economics, and evolving housing conditions is reshaping the market forces that have traditionally driven winter real estate activity.
Canadian Snowbird Exodus
The single biggest disruption to the 2025 season is the sharp decline in Canadian buyers and visitors. Once contributing about $2.5 billion annually to Arizona’s economy, Canadian snowbirds are selling their U.S. properties at record levels. Surveys show that more than half—54%—of Canadian snowbird property owners have already sold or plan to sell.
The reasons are layered: Per a recent Kiplinger's article, “A weaker Canadian dollar makes everything more expensive for visitors trying to live on a Canadian income while in the United States. As a result, fewer snowbirds may cross the border, potentially reducing revenue for U.S. tourism and local economies.” And new regulations require registration for stays beyond 30 days, and political tensions add another hurdle. Travel data confirms the retreat, with Canadian trips to the U.S. down 37% and advance bookings falling more than 70% year-over-year.
The effect is visible across the Valley. Visitor spending has dropped by roughly $700 million, with the sharpest impacts in traditional Canadian hubs like Mesa, Chandler, and Gilbert.
Domestic Snowbird Market Resilience
While Canadian demand shrinks, domestic snowbird activity remains steady, especially from Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and California. But these buyers are entering a very different market.
Regarding October transactions, inbusinessphx.com states, “During the ‘best week,’ buyers can expect up to 32.6% more active listings than at the start of the year, plus a steady flow of fresh options—historically 15.7% more new listings than early-year conditions." Inventory is up 25–30% year-over-year, reaching its highest since 2017 and offering buyers more options. Homes now average 79–95 days on the market, reflecting a slower pace. Redfin reports median prices in the mid-$400,000s—down from summer peaks but still over 50% above pre-pandemic levels.
Rentals: Diverging Paths
The rental picture is mixed. Short-term rental occupancy has leveled near 48% with daily rates around $257, though oversupply and regulation continue to loom. In contrast, long-term rentals are healthier, with occupancy above 94% and fewer concessions needed to attract tenants. Some seasonal residents are choosing to rent rather than buy, waiting for clarity on prices and conditions.
Timing and Geography
The snowbird buying window is shifting. Instead of a rush, buyers now have the luxury of time. October and November are shaping up as the sweet spot for negotiation, when inventory peaks and sellers cut prices ahead of the holidays.
Geographically, luxury enclaves like Scottsdale and Paradise Valley remain resilient, while suburban hubs such as Mesa and Chandler are moving toward balanced conditions. Outlying areas like Peoria, Queen Creek, and Goodyear are leaning more toward buyer-friendly territory, though they lack the central amenities many snowbirds prioritize.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 snowbird season signals a transition. Canada’s retreat has thinned competition, giving domestic buyers more leverage, but prices remain elevated enough to require careful financial planning. For those considering a purchase, this winter offers opportunity if approached with realistic expectations, strong preparation, and a clear understanding of today’s market dynamics.
Thinking about making Phoenix your winter home? I can help you navigate today’s market, compare options, and connect with trusted lenders. Contact me at 917/224-2292 or email at ethan.wolvek@revinre.com